How Long Will This Market Last?

As the market unfolds today, property supply increases and prices fall: That's been the trend for 110 years, since 1890. But since 1997, real home prices have increased by 90 percent. There is no economic fundamental — real income, migration,interest rates, demographics — that can explain this escalation. That means there was a speculative bubble. And now the bubble is bursting.

So how is the Sarasota market poised? I'm personally bullish on the city. I live in Sarasota, and, in the last five years, property values have increased between ±60-120 percent depending on the location of your home (mainland versus waterfront). That exaggerated price appreciation doesn't make sense.

Now there are several devolpments under construction coming to the market in the next one to three years. There's going to be a glut especially in the downtown market with so many condos .

With hundreds of new luxury units coming on the market, the question is: Who going to buy them? The Metropolitan is one development that has not met its goal. It only had 30 reservations when the developers had projected 90 reservations by now. Banks will only lend when you have 60 percent sold in the building.

There's a glut of new condos and it's getting worse. This supply will affect condo prices. A home is a home, and excess supply leads to falling prices.

It's wishful thinking to say that things are becoming more realistic. Sellers have not quite reached that point. While we don't know have hard data yet on what exactly is happening in the market, we do know that prices of homes are sluggish. Some of the price action will come in the next few months when the supply increases even further, and demand is lingering, and the national economy slows down.

Some people say that there is so much wealth here that there will always be buyers for high-end properties. That's nonsense. It's not as if there's infinite wealth. After all this is not the only city in Florida people choose. We are also competing with other parts of Florida.

People who bought years ago are lucky but that does not mean the increase in value of their home make them richer. If I were to sell my home and buy a property that has the same amenities, I would have to pay the same price. So I'm not wealthier, even though my home has gone up in value. What has happened in the past five years is that the real price of my housing service has doubled. I'm paying more to live in that home.

On a positive note there will not be a fire sale in Sarasota. I'd expect that a year from now prices may fall 20-30 percent. The ride for now is over and it will not be soft landing when you had 35-40 percent sales driven by speculators. Like many of us we do prefer people who will live in their homes. It's just like the stock market in all runs in cycles. I remember when the real estate market crashed in California back in 1990 and six years later it soared again. So we need a little patience...

The good news is what prices do in the future shouldn't matter much if you buy a place you love. And that's much easier to do now than in the past four years . So hire the best real estate agent to get that great deal.

For more information, please call:
Louis Wery, Broker Associate, CIPS, CRS, ABR, LHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc.
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive, Suite One
Longboat Key, Florida 34228 USA
1-941-232-3001

Clubbing Around Lakewood Ranch

Lovely lakes, emerald vistas and golf courses designed by Arnold Palmer lure homebuyers east to the Country Club at Lakewood Ranch.

The gated community is comprised of neighborhoods built around 54 holes of golf: 18 at the public Legacy Golf club and 36 at the private Lakewood Ranch Golf and Country Club, where a handsome clubhouse offers dining, swimming, an athelic center and party rooms.

Residences range from condominiums to detached single-family homes with maintenace-free lawn service to grand estates. Bicyclists, joggers and nature lovers enjoy miles of sidewalks and trails. Nearby, the new Main Street shopping district has specialty boutiques, a barbershop, fine restaurants and a gourmet market.

For more information, please call:
Louis Wery, Broker Associate, CIPS, CRS, ABR, LHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc.
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive, Suite One
Longboat Key, Florida 34228 USA
1-941-232-3001

Housing Prices Are Cooling Off...

Sellers are definitely blinking.

For the second month in a row, the Sarasota-Bradenton market posted a double-digit drop in median sales price.

A single -family home sold for $309,700 during August, down 11 percent drop during July. It is a sure sign that the houses that are moving in a market saturated with listings are the ones most competitively priced. The biggest mistake today is that sellers price their homes off their neighbor's home down the street. We still see a lot of overpriced listings going on the market.

Sales in The Sarasota-Bradenton have dropped 28 percent, from 1,062 to 765.

At the present clip, it would take nearly two years to sell off just the existing inventory, assuming no more homes come onto the market. So far, the listing rate has been growing at about 1,500 or each month. The current rate of sales is comparable to 2002 before the big boom of 2003-2005. We are now returning to a more traditional market.

Condominiums fared worse in terms of sales than houses, but better in terms of price in August. There has been a 55 percent drop in volume, from 454 in August 2005 to 206 last month. The median sales price dropped 14 percent from $280,000 to $240,000.

The good news is we are in a great city. People love the sun and the arts.

For more information, please call:
Louis Wery, Broker Associate, CIPS, CRS, ABR, LHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc.
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive, Suite One
Longboat Key, Florida 34228 USA
1-941-232-3001

Ritz-Carlton Puts Sarasota on World-Class Map

Ritz Carlton Sarasota put our town on the world map for travelers for whom money is no object.

The hotel is included in the Robb Report's annual publication, which hit newstands September 5, includes just one hotel from each of almost 100 cities around the world.

This is great news for the local economy since alongside the Sarasota Ritz, the magazine lists 21 other U.S. hotels — many of them in big cities — putting Sarasota in good company.

Sarasota is definitely the place for cultural activities and is one of the best little cities to live in the USA.

For more information, please call:
Louis Wery, Broker Associate, CIPS, CRS, ABR, LHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc.
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive, Suite One
Longboat Key, Florida 34228 USA
1-941-232-3001

Neal Communities Trends Up

Neal Communities says it exceeded its projections for August, with 18 sales in four neighborhoods.

There were four sold in Wisteria park, four sold in Forest Creek, two sold in Wexford at Lakewood Ranch, and eight at the Harborage for a total volume of $6,531,231, with an average sales price of $362,846 per home, according to the Sarasota Herald-Tribune (September 18, 2006 Business Weekly).

Neal's take on the housing situation was atypical of the gloom that many builders have talked about .

I say that the real reason that Pat Neal's results exceed other builders' is that he knows what the consumer likes, his products (homes) please the eye and, most of all, he stays in a price range that is close to affordable.

Neal Communities is one of the largest privately owned building and development companies in Southwest Florida.

For more information, please call:
Louis Wery, Broker Associate, CIPS, CRS, ABR, LHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc.
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive, Suite One
Longboat Key, Florida 34228 USA
1-941-232-3001

Don't Make Selling Even More Difficult!

In this admittedly difficult real-estate market, it amazes me how many sellers put roadblocks in front of prospective buyers. For example, when sellers refuse to install a lockbox, they are making their home less accessible to potential buyers. It seems to me that, if you want to sell property, particularly in a competitive market, then you would want to make it easy for possible buyers to take a look.

For a homeowner who wants to sell, all it takes is one person who wants to buy what you've got on the market!

Lockboxes work like a padlock with a cavity inside for a key to your home. Only someone with an electronic key can open the lockbox to reach the key to your home and every access is recorded and reported.

Without a lockbox, agents representing buyers must arrange additional appointments to see your home. Since most homes for sale have lockboxes, the added inconvenience can make a big difference.

For more information, please call:
Louis Wery, Broker Associate, CIPS, CRS, ABR, LHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc.
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive, Suite One
Longboat Key, Florida 34228 USA
1-941-232-3001

Crane Often Cited as Sarasota's Official Bird

Riffing off a recent blog written by Harold Bubil, the popular real-estate editor for the Sarasota Herald-Tribune, I see many indications that there’s a strong pulse in the Sarasota area real-estate market. Bubil cited Bob Steiner, president of Kelly Equipment in St. Pete who said, after a slowdown, he’s getting more inquiries for cranes so the condominium market may be reviving in Florida.

Remember when we called the construction crane the mascot of Sarasota?

I do open houses several days a week for my property listings and I admit that summer has been slower than ever. Some days I would catch up on a week of Wall Street Journal issues! And my cell phone was pretty dead, too.... I’m glad to say that recently I’m seeing more guests drop by open houses and my cell phone traffic is picking up as well. While the prospective buyers may not be as plentiful as during the past season, they seem more serious about their searches. Fewer folks are looking for decorating ideas and more are looking for property to buy.

Let’s hope this trend accelerates!

For more information, please call:
Louis Wery, Broker Associate, CIPS, CRS, ABR, LHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc.
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive, Suite One
Longboat Key, Florida 34228 USA
1-941-232-3001

Traveling Makes the Heart Yearn for Sarasota

I recently returned from Europe with even more enthusiasm for the Sarasota area. No doubt I speak for most people who are fortunate to live in this paradisical region of Florida when I say that there's no place like home when home is on Florida's cultural coast with its world-class beaches and amenities.

Certainly as more people become aware of Sarasota's natural beauty, they will relocate here. I think that these newcomers will help those of us who arrived a little earlier to find better ways to meet the challenges of our growing community.

For more information, please call:
Louis Wery, Broker Associate, CIPS, CRS, ABR, LHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, Inc.
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive, Suite One
Longboat Key, Florida 34228 USA
1-941-232-3001